by agentcom on Mon Jan 23, 2012 2:28 pm
Wow, was prepared to have to do a lot more reading than that, but it looks like a lot of the discussion was brief posts and there hasn't been any action since yesterday afternoon. My thoughts so far ... let's start with MoB Deadly.
I initially thought he was just trying to test out the system. I didn't see any reason for suspicion of that. Kind of thought it was a good idea. However, I did not think of Zimmah's point about why someone would need to do that. Now I am really suspicious. I find his arguments somewhat persuasive although that is mostly because they are so OBVIOUS. It's exactly what anybody would say if they were passing information. Oh I was just "testing the system." The message could also be code for some sort of coordinated action or information. I am not sure what to do with though. I am split about 50/50 on two routes:
(1) We hold off on lynching anyone on Day 1. This will give us time to investigate and clear MoB. Since we know there's a cop and no "interfering" roles, then unless mafia gets really lucky and kills the cop, we should know for sure whether he is cleared tomorrow.
(2) As the most suspicious person in the game, we go ahead and lynch MoB. The factor that weighs in favor of this is that we were lucky enough to kill a mafia in night one, so that should put us at a big advantage compared to other games. Thegeneral noted that this game is about a 50/50 odds between town and mafia, so I would think killing a mafia on night 1 would swing that significantly in favor of town. Also, we're gonna have to start lynching somebody at some point, so why not start with the people that are acting weird from the start.
(editing as I write): Actually, I'm thinking that the odds being in our favor could be used to argue for either case above.
(damn ... more edits): I forgot to consider that there is either a lawyer or a hooker in this game. If MoB is mafia and lawyer/hooker uses power on MoB, then we won't get anything out of the result (other than knowing the set-up IF result comes back "failed to investigate").
So, now I've talked myself into it. At this point in the game, there is no way to clear MoB. And even though Zimmah may no longer be convinced by his own argument, I am growing more and more convinced.
vote MoB Deadly
I think MoB Deadly is a mafia stalker. I think he was communicating the results of his stalking either to Ghostly (and the messaged was accidentally leaked) or was communicating the results to somebody else (and his message was intentionally leaked to try to implicate Ghostly if someone kills MoB).
Summarizing additional evidence:
Edoc: This would be a good way to out the cop
Also, I think Spiesr made a good point earlier that pointed out that MoB made a weird response to having the "heat" on him.
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I think part of MoB's plan backfired because we now have come up with some pretty good systems for not allowing mafia to gain much (if any) information from our PMs to Zimmah. In MoB's defense (and in the interest of fairness), MoB did contribute a little bit to helping in this regard. Though he definitely didn't provide as good of ideas as Ghostly and Spiesr. Is that because he didn't think of them? Or is it because he wanted to look like he was helping without helping all that much? Obviously, since I'm the one making the case, I'm thinking the latter.
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Considering that this game is now tilted in favor of us, I can't figure out why General gave the townies another weapon/skill/ability/whatever. Seems like he's kind of on our side. I'm not complaining, I just can't figure that one out.
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Finally, I am 95% sure that Zimmah is above board. Everyone (except maybe Soundman?) has posted and nobody has claimed the role of doctor. Also, I can't figure out how it would benefit mafia to claim doctor, except to out the cop. Seems like an incredibly risky strategy, since we could then go and lynch both claimed doctors and mafia would be down to 1 person (and depending on whether we guessed right, we might still have the doctor. Can mafia even win with only 1 person? Even if mafia can win with 1, I would doubt that mafia would put themselves in a position that they would have to kill 3 (or 4) townies before their last member died. Maybe this is so obvious that no one has felt the need to type it out. Am I right about this? I just want to be certain before we start trying to send PM's to Zimmah. Although, I think the only person that this will really effect is the cop who supposedly has already told Zimmah who he is.
